What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 94¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.23.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 94% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 94%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather

Sierra-at-Tahoe Opening on Kalshi

If the first calendar day in the 2026-27 winter season on which Sierra-at-Tahoe conducts Seasonal Opening Operations occurs before Dec 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Sierra-at-Tahoe Resort, USA Today, Associated Press, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

94%

Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

13% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%
94¢ (now)	0.4¢	$0.21	94.4%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Sierra-at-Tahoe open before Dec 20, 2026? · Before Dec 20, 2026	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	12%	2,326	Dec 26, 15:00 UTC
Will Sierra-at-Tahoe open before Dec 27, 2026? · Before Dec 27, 2026	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	12%	2,206	Jan 02, 15:00 UTC
Will Sierra-at-Tahoe open before Dec 13, 2026? · Before Dec 13, 2026	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	89%	1,573	Dec 19, 15:00 UTC
Will Sierra-at-Tahoe open before Jan 10, 2027? · Before Jan 10, 2027	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	13%	215	Jan 16, 15:00 UTC
Will Sierra-at-Tahoe open before Jan 3, 2027? · Before Jan 3, 2027	54¢	54%	1.7¢	—	93%	73	Jan 09, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.