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Shopify Annual KPI on Kalshi
If Shopify Inc. reports Above 510000000000 gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
92%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
17% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 92¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $0.28 | 92.5% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Shopify Inc. report Above $470 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026? · Above $470 billion | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 3,565 | May 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Shopify Inc. report Above $490 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026? · Above $490 billion | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 2,292 | May 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Shopify Inc. report Above $500 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026? · Above $500 billion | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 1,728 | May 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Shopify Inc. report Above $510 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026? · Above $510 billion | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 1,578 | May 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Shopify Inc. report Above $460 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026? · Above $460 billion | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,391 | May 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Shopify Inc. report Above $480 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026? · Above $480 billion | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,269 | May 11, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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