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Shopify KPI on Kalshi
If Shopify Inc. reports Above 114000000000 gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Shopify Inc. report Above $120 billion gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027? · Above $120 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 1,509 | Sep 01, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Shopify Inc. report Above $134 billion gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027? · Above $134 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 884 | Sep 01, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Shopify Inc. report Above $126 billion gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027? · Above $126 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 528 | Sep 01, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Shopify Inc. report Above $114 billion gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027? · Above $114 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Sep 01, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Shopify Inc. report Above $116 billion gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027? · Above $116 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Sep 01, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Shopify Inc. report Above $118 billion gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027? · Above $118 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Sep 01, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Shopify Inc. report Above $146 billion gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027? · Above $146 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Sep 01, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Shopify Inc. report Above $144 billion gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027? · Above $144 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Sep 01, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Shopify Inc. report Above $142 billion gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027? · Above $142 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Sep 01, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Shopify Inc. report Above $140 billion gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027? · Above $140 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Sep 01, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Shopify Inc. report Above $132 billion gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027? · Above $132 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Sep 01, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Shopify Inc. report Above $130 billion gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027? · Above $130 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Sep 01, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Shopify Inc. report Above $128 billion gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027? · Above $128 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Sep 01, 11:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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