What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 6¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.29.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 6% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 6%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Senate Republican leader race: who will run? on Kalshi

If Tom Cotton has announced that they will run for Senate Republican leader for the 120th Congress in 2026 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Fox News, Semafor, Politico, MSNBC, the Associated Press, Reuters, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

12% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
6¢ (now)	0.4¢	$3.29	6.4%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Rick Scott announce a run for Senate Republican leader for the 120th Congress in 2026? · Rick Scott	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	4,282	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will John Barrasso announce a run for Senate Republican leader for the 120th Congress in 2026? · John Barrasso	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	883	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will John Thune announce a run for Senate Republican leader for the 120th Congress in 2026? · John Thune	95¢	95%	0.3¢	—	10%	815	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Ron Johnson announce a run for Senate Republican leader for the 120th Congress in 2026? · Ron Johnson	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	239	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Tom Cotton announce a run for Senate Republican leader for the 120th Congress in 2026? · Tom Cotton	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	89	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Mike Lee announce a run for Senate Republican leader for the 120th Congress in 2026? · Mike Lee	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	89	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Josh Hawley announce a run for Senate Republican leader for the 120th Congress in 2026? · Josh Hawley	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	89	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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