What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 9¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.19.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 10% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 9%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Senate Democratic leader race: who will run? on Kalshi

If Elissa Slotkin has announced that they will run for Senate Democratic leader for the 120th Congress in 2026 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Fox News, Semafor, Politico, MSNBC, the Associated Press, Reuters, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

18% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
9¢ (now)	0.6¢	$3.19	9.6%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Cory Booker announce a run for Senate Democratic leader for the 120th Congress in 2026? · Cory Booker	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	5,781	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Chuck Schumer announce a run for Senate Democratic leader for the 120th Congress in 2026? · Chuck Schumer	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	3,734	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Chris Van Hollen announce a run for Senate Democratic leader for the 120th Congress in 2026? · Chris Van Hollen	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	89%	2,052	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Brian Schatz announce a run for Senate Democratic leader for the 120th Congress in 2026? · Brian Schatz	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	1,265	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Chris Murphy announce a run for Senate Democratic leader for the 120th Congress in 2026? · Chris Murphy	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	885	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Elissa Slotkin announce a run for Senate Democratic leader for the 120th Congress in 2026? · Elissa Slotkin	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	471	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Elizabeth Warren announce a run for Senate Democratic leader for the 120th Congress in 2026? · Elizabeth Warren	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	232	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Catherine Cortez Masto announce a run for Senate Democratic leader for the 120th Congress in 2026? · Catherine Cortez Masto	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	25	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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