Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Senate nominee? on Kalshi
If Christy Davis wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2028 Class III Kansas Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ, NBC News, New York Times, Fox News, CNN, CBS News, ABC News.
Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 439 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
11% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will John Boozman be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Arkansas? · John Boozman | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 400 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michael Bennet be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Colorado? · Michael Bennet | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 399 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Frank LaRose be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Ohio? · Frank LaRose | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 292 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Kaul be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Wisconsin? · Josh Kaul | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 240 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mike Lee be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Utah? · Mike Lee | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 234 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tom Emmer be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Minnesota? · Tom Emmer | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 203 | Nov 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gerald Malloy be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Vermont? · Gerald Malloy | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 200 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jerri Green be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Tennessee? · Jerri Green | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 200 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Todd Young be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Indiana? · Todd Young | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 200 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Arizona? · Mark Kelly | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 200 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joe Neguse be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Colorado? · Joe Neguse | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 191 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jason Crow be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Colorado? · Jason Crow | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 25 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brittany Pettersen be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Colorado? · Brittany Pettersen | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 8 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Colorado? · Julie Gonzales | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 4 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kansas? · Christy Davis | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nicholas Albares be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Louisiana? · Nicholas Albares | 5¢ | 5% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bill Cassidy be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Louisiana? · Bill Cassidy | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Monty Fritts be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Tennessee? · Monty Fritts | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alexis Hill be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Nevada? · Alexis Hill | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mark Fitzpatrick be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Idaho? · Mark Fitzpatrick | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Scott Bottoms be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Colorado? · Scott Bottoms | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Philip Sarnecki be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Kansas? · Philip Sarnecki | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chip Keating be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Oklahoma? · Chip Keating | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Connie Johnson be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Oklahoma? · Connie Johnson | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for the Senate in South Carolina? · Mark Lynch | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chris Dudley be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Oregon? · Chris Dudley | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kendall Qualls be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Minnesota? · Kendall Qualls | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ted Dabrowski be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Illinois? · Ted Dabrowski | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michael Thurmond be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Georgia? · Michael Thurmond | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vicki Schmidt be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Kansas? · Vicki Schmidt | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Scott Schwab be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Kansas? · Scott Schwab | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Elliott be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Connecticut? · Josh Elliott | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Alabama? · Dakarai Larriett | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Fred Love be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Arkansas? · Fred Love | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Charles McCall be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Oklahoma? · Charles McCall | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Oklahoma? · Jim Priest | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will N'Kiyla Thomas be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Oklahoma? · N'Kiyla Thomas | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marquita Bradshaw be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Tennessee? · Marquita Bradshaw | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Billy Webster be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in South Carolina? · Billy Webster | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brandon Brown be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in South Carolina? · Brandon Brown | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 439 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.