Markets › Kalshi › Mentions
Sec Press mentions on Kalshi
If the White House Press Secretary says Venezuela at the next Press Briefing by the White House Press Secretary (does not include gaggles), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: White House, White House Press Secretary.
Market says (typical open contract)
46%
Median YES price across 26 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
93% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the White House Press Secretary say Event does not qualify/occur at her next press briefing? · Event does not qualify/occur | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 14,858 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say Trump (3+ times) at her next press briefing? · Trump (3+ times) | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 2,706 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say China / Chinese at her next press briefing? · China / Chinese | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 1,038 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say Oil / Gas / Gasoline at her next press briefing? · Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 643 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say Election / Midterm at her next press briefing? · Election / Midterm | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 545 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say Iran / Iranian at her next press briefing? · Iran / Iranian | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 415 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say Inflation at her next press briefing? · Inflation | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 399 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say Economy / Economic at her next press briefing? · Economy / Economic | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 390 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say Afford / Affordable / Affordability at her next press briefing? · Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 304 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say Russia / Ukraine at her next press briefing? · Russia / Ukraine | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 259 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say Democrat at her next press briefing? · Democrat | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 256 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say California at her next press briefing? · California | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 234 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say Nuclear at her next press briefing? · Nuclear | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 206 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say Biden at her next press briefing? · Biden | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 180 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say Fraud at her next press briefing? · Fraud | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 170 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say Leavitt at her next press briefing? · Leavitt | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 148 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say Border at her next press briefing? · Border | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 148 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say Illegal Alien at her next press briefing? · Illegal Alien | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 114 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say Venezuela at her next press briefing? · Venezuela | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 110 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say Fake News at her next press briefing? · Fake News | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 105 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say Crypto / Bitcoin at her next press briefing? · Crypto / Bitcoin | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 48 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say AI / Artificial Intelligence at her next press briefing? · AI / Artificial Intelligence | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 45 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say America First at her next press briefing? · America First | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 25 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say Tariff at her next press briefing? · Tariff | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 24 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say ICE at her next press briefing? · ICE | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 9 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say Fentanyl at her next press briefing? · Fentanyl | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 3 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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