Markets › Kalshi › Economics
South Dakota corn yield on Kalshi
If USDA NASS reports that South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 is above 125 bu/acre, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Market says (typical open contract)
54%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
93% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 54¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.61 | 55.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 170 bu/acre? · Above 170 bu/acre | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 71,941 | Jan 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 125 bu/acre? · Above 125 bu/acre | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 66,498 | Jan 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 130 bu/acre? · Above 130 bu/acre | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 62,387 | Jan 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 160 bu/acre? · Above 160 bu/acre | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 58,517 | Jan 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 165 bu/acre? · Above 165 bu/acre | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 49,222 | Jan 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 180 bu/acre? · Above 180 bu/acre | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 47,761 | Jan 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 175 bu/acre? · Above 175 bu/acre | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 39,560 | Jan 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 155 bu/acre? · Above 155 bu/acre | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 31,022 | Jan 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 145 bu/acre? · Above 145 bu/acre | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 30,210 | Jan 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 150 bu/acre? · Above 150 bu/acre | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 21,281 | Jan 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 135 bu/acre? · Above 135 bu/acre | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 16,114 | Jan 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 140 bu/acre? · Above 140 bu/acre | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 7,796 | Jan 31, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.