Markets › Kalshi › Politics
New Supreme Court Justice on Kalshi
If the Senate confirms a new justice to the Supreme Court between Issuance and January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Library of Congress.
Market says (typical open contract)
17%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
34% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.91 | 18.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by Dec 31, 2026? · Before 2027 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 237,664 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by May 31, 2027? · Before June 2027 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 13,652 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by December 31, 2027? · Before 2028 | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 5,620 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by January 20, 2029? · Before Jan 21, 2029 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 3,719 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.