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Supreme Court decisions on Kalshi
If the Supreme Court, in Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D., rules that the district court’s classwide declaratory relief and vacatur of DHS’s third-country removal Guidance cannot stand, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Supreme Court.
Market says (typical open contract)
68%
Median YES price across 24 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
63% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 69¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $1.09 | 70.5% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Suncor Energy (U.S.A.) Inc in Suncor Energy (U.S.A.) Inc. v. Commissioners of Boulder County · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 5,723 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Kendrick Jarrell Beaird in Beaird v. United States · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 3,511 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Department of Homeland Security in Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D. · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 3,414 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Dr. Jasmine Younge in Younge v. Fulton Judicial Circuit District Attorney’s Office · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 1,794 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Hamed Kian in Kian v. Florida · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 1,667 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of William Maxwell in Maxwell v. Dinis · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 1,642 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of St. Mary Catholic Parish in Littleton in St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 1,568 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Winston R. Anderson and Christopher M. Sulyma in Anderson v. Intel Corp. Investment Policy Committee · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 1,236 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Floyd D. Johnson in Johnson v. United States Congress · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 1,216 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Leonard W. Hoffmann et al. in Hoffmann v. WBI Energy Transmission, Inc. · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 1,058 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of RiseandShine Corporation, d/b/a Rise Brewing in RiseandShine Corp. v. PepsiCo, Inc. · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 834 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Daniel Grand in Grand v. City of University Heights · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 831 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Francis Nielsen in Nielsen v. Watanabe · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 819 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Michael Salazar in Salazar v. Paramount Global · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 713 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Department of Labor in Department of Labor v. Sun Valley Orchards, LLC · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 410 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Eric Guerrero in Guerrero v. Johnson · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 404 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Kevin Isaac Montoya Palacios in Montoya Palacios v. Liggins · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 400 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Tamer S. Wassily in Wassily v. Blanche · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 356 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Thomas Crowther et al. in Crowther v. Board of Regents of the University System of Georgia · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 212 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of United States Department of the Air Force in Department of the Air Force v. Prutehi Guahan · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 209 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Republican National Committee in Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 151 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc in International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc. v. Ferguson · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 64 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Apple Inc. in Apple Inc. v. Epic Games, Inc. · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 52 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Kenneth J. Jouppi in Jouppi v. Alaska · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 32 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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