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Super Bowl setlist on Kalshi
If any performer sings No Church In The Wild at the 2027 Super Bowl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
32%
Median YES price across 45 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
64% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 32¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.38 | 33.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any performer sing Empire State Of Mind at the Super Bowl? · Empire State Of Mind | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 3,801 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Suit & Tie at the Super Bowl? · Suit & Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 2,168 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Public Service Announcement (interlude) at the Super Bowl? · Public Service Announcement (interlude) | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 2,124 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Roc Boys (And the Winner Is…) at the Super Bowl? · Roc Boys (And the Winner Is…) | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 2,001 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Holy Grail at the Super Bowl? · Holy Grail | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 1,791 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Lucifer at the Super Bowl? · Lucifer | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1,211 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Ni**as In Paris at the Super Bowl? · Ni**as In Paris | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 1,002 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing 99 Problems at the Super Bowl? · 99 Problems | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 961 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Run This Town at the Super Bowl? · Run This Town | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 949 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Izzo (H.O.V.A.) at the Super Bowl? · Izzo (H.O.V.A.) | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 614 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Drunk in Love at the Super Bowl? · Drunk in Love | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 194 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Crazy In Love at the Super Bowl? · Crazy In Love | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 113 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing 4:44 at the Super Bowl? · 4:44 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 104 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Otis at the Super Bowl? · Otis | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 80 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Big Pimpin' at the Super Bowl? · Big Pimpin' | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 54 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Numb / Encore at the Super Bowl? · Numb / Encore | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 47 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Hard Knock Life (Ghetto Anthem) at the Super Bowl? · Hard Knock Life (Ghetto Anthem) | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 22 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Girls, Girls, Girls at the Super Bowl? · Girls, Girls, Girls | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 20 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Takeover at the Super Bowl? · Takeover | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 17 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Dead Presidents II at the Super Bowl? · Dead Presidents II | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 14 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing No Church In The Wild at the Super Bowl? · No Church In The Wild | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 13 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing I Just Wanna Love U (Give it 2 Me) at the Super Bowl? · I Just Wanna Love U (Give it 2 Me) | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 9 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Dirt Off Your Shoulder at the Super Bowl? · Dirt Off Your Shoulder | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 7 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing FuckWithMeYouKnowIGotIt at the Super Bowl? · FuckWithMeYouKnowIGotIt | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 7 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Jigga My Ni**a at the Super Bowl? · Jigga My Ni**a | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 4 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Umbrella at the Super Bowl? · Umbrella | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 3 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing ’03 Bonnie & Clyde at the Super Bowl? · ’03 Bonnie & Clyde | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 1 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing On To The Next One at the Super Bowl? · On To The Next One | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 0 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Renegade at the Super Bowl? · Renegade | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Can't Knock The Hustle at the Super Bowl? · Can't Knock The Hustle | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Intro (From the album 'The Dynasty: Roc La Familia" at the Super Bowl? · Intro (From the album 'The Dynasty: Roc La Familia" | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Marcy Me at the Super Bowl? · Marcy Me | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing I Know at the Super Bowl? · I Know | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Ni**a What, Ni**a Who (Originator 99) at the Super Bowl? · Ni**a What, Ni**a Who (Originator 99) | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Beach Is Better at the Super Bowl? · Beach Is Better | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Never Change at the Super Bowl? · Never Change | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Show Me What You Got at the Super Bowl? · Show Me What You Got | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Why I Love You at the Super Bowl? · Why I Love You | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing Where I’m From at the Super Bowl? · Where I’m From | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 0 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any performer sing U Don’t Know at the Super Bowl? · U Don’t Know | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 45 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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