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Ryder Cup Captain on Kalshi
If Thomas Bjørn is the Europe Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox Sports, NBC Sports, Reuters, ESPN, the Associated Press, Golf Channel.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
97% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 48¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.82 | 49.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Donald to be the Europe Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup · Luke Donald | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 35,004 | Oct 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Jim Furyk to be the U.S. Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup · Jim Furyk | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 22,567 | Oct 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Tiger Woods to be the U.S. Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup · Tiger Woods | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 8,831 | Oct 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Justin Rose to be the Europe Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup · Justin Rose | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 5,023 | Oct 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Francesco Molinari to be the Europe Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup · Francesco Molinari | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 4,832 | Oct 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Padraig Harrington to be the Europe Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup · Padraig Harrington | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 1,330 | Oct 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Davis Love III to be the U.S. Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup · Davis Love III | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,067 | Oct 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Keegan Bradley to be the U.S. Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup · Keegan Bradley | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 786 | Oct 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Webb Simpson to be the U.S. Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup · Webb Simpson | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 601 | Oct 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Brandt Snedeker to be the U.S. Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup · Brandt Snedeker | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 519 | Oct 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Gary Woodland to be the U.S. Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup · Gary Woodland | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 214 | Oct 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Zach Johnson to be the U.S. Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup · Zach Johnson | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 118 | Oct 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Corey Pavin to be the U.S. Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup · Corey Pavin | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 117 | Oct 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Steve Stricker to be the U.S. Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup · Steve Stricker | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 50 | Oct 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Kevin Kisner to be the U.S. Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup · Kevin Kisner | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 15 | Oct 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Thomas Bjørn to be the Europe Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup · Thomas Bjørn | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 6 | Oct 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Nicolas Colsaerts to be the Europe Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup · Nicolas Colsaerts | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 6 | Oct 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Edoardo Molinari to be the Europe Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup · Edoardo Molinari | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 6 | Oct 07, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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