What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 9¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.19.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 10% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 9%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Who will leave Trump's Cabinet first: Rubio or Hegseth? on Kalshi

If Pete Hegseth is the first of the two officials named in this event to leave, or announce he will leave, his position as Secretary of Defense after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Guardian, ABC, Fox News, South China Morning Post, The Information, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, ABC News Australia, Semafor, MSNBC, the Associated Press, CBC, Reuters, Politico, BBC News, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

18% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
9¢ (now)	0.6¢	$3.19	9.6%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Pete Hegseth is the first of the two officials named in this event to leave, or announce he will leave, his position as Secretary of Defense before Jan 20, 2029? · Pete Hegseth	84¢	84%	0.9¢	—	32%	Jan 20, 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that neither of the two officials named in this event leaves, or announces he will leave, his position before Jan 20, 2029? · None	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	Jan 20, 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Marco Rubio is the first of the two officials named in this event to leave, or announce he will leave, his position as Secretary of State before Jan 20, 2029? · Marco Rubio	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	Jan 20, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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