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Who will win a state in the 2028 Republican primaries? on Kalshi
If Thomas Massie wins at least one of the 2028 state Republican presidential nominating contests, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Associated Press, US State Governments, New York Times, NBC News, ABC News, Fox News, CNN, CBS News.
Market says (typical open contract)
31%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
61% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 31¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.41 | 32.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ron DeSantis win a state in the 2028 Republican presidential primaries? · Ron DeSantis | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 200 | Sep 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio win a state in the 2028 Republican presidential primaries? · Marco Rubio | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 200 | Sep 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Thomas Massie win a state in the 2028 Republican presidential primaries? · Thomas Massie | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Sep 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tucker Carlson win a state in the 2028 Republican presidential primaries? · Tucker Carlson | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Sep 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will J.D. Vance win a state in the 2028 Republican presidential primaries? · J.D. Vance | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Sep 01, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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