Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
RONI on Kalshi
If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is at least 2.5°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: San Francisco Unified School District.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be at least 3.0°C? · At least 3.0°C | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 60,674 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be between 2.5°C and 2.9°C? · 2.5°C to 2.9°C | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 46,067 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be between 2.0°C and 2.4°C? · 2.0°C to 2.4°C | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 32,101 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season be at least 2.5°C? · At least 2.5°C | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 6,813 | Apr 05, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be between 1.5°C and 1.9°C? · 1.5°C to 1.9°C | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,300 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season be at least 2.0°C? · At least 2.0°C | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 4,001 | Apr 05, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be below 1.5°C? · Below 1.5°C | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 3,683 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season be between 2.0°C and 2.4°C? · 2.0°C to 2.4°C | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,605 | Apr 05, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season be between 1.5°C and 1.9°C? · 1.5°C to 1.9°C | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,559 | Apr 05, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season be between 1.0°C and 1.4°C? · 1.0°C to 1.4°C | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 950 | Apr 05, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season be between 1.5°C and 1.9°C? · 1.5°C to 1.9°C | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 737 | Apr 05, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season be between 0.5°C and 0.9°C? · 0.5°C to 0.9°C | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 487 | Apr 05, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season be between 1.0°C and 1.4°C? · 1.0°C to 1.4°C | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 465 | Apr 05, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season be below 0.5°C? · Below 0.5°C | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 224 | Apr 05, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season be below 0.5°C? · Below 0.5°C | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 127 | Apr 05, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season be between 0.5°C and 0.9°C? · 0.5°C to 0.9°C | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 52 | Apr 05, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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