What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 74¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.89.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 76% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 74%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Rivian KPI on Kalshi

If Rivian reports Above 35000 total vehicles delivered in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fiscal.ai.

Market says (typical open contract)

74%

Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

51% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
74¢ (now)	1.3¢	$0.91	75.3%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Rivian report Above 25000 total vehicles delivered in Q1 2027? · Above 25000	74¢	74%	1.3¢	—	51%	2,066	Aug 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Rivian report Above 29000 total vehicles delivered in Q1 2027? · Above 29000	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	79%	1,435	Aug 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Rivian report Above 19000 total vehicles delivered in Q1 2027? · Above 19000	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	8%	1,400	Aug 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Rivian report Above 27000 total vehicles delivered in Q1 2027? · Above 27000	62¢	62%	1.6¢	—	75%	1,278	Aug 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Rivian report Above 31000 total vehicles delivered in Q1 2027? · Above 31000	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	63%	442	Aug 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Rivian report Above 21000 total vehicles delivered in Q1 2027? · Above 21000	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	12%	400	Aug 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Rivian report Above 17000 total vehicles delivered in Q1 2027? · Above 17000	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	400	Aug 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Rivian report Above 23000 total vehicles delivered in Q1 2027? · Above 23000	87¢	87%	0.8¢	—	26%	275	Aug 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Rivian report Above 35000 total vehicles delivered in Q1 2027? · Above 35000	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	250	Aug 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Rivian report Above 15000 total vehicles delivered in Q1 2027? · Above 15000	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	200	Aug 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Rivian report Above 33000 total vehicles delivered in Q1 2027? · Above 33000	17¢	17%	1.0¢	—	34%	0	Aug 27, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.