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Rhode Island residential electricity price on Kalshi
If EIA reports Rhode Island’s average residential electricity price for calendar year 2026 is above 31.0¢/kWh, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Market says (typical open contract)
84%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
32% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 84¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $0.56 | 84.9% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rhode Island’s average residential electricity price for 2026 be above 28.0¢/kWh? · Above 28.0¢/kWh | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 35,810 | Feb 28, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Rhode Island’s average residential electricity price for 2026 be above 29.5¢/kWh? · Above 29.5¢/kWh | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 33,200 | Feb 28, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Rhode Island’s average residential electricity price for 2026 be above 28.5¢/kWh? · Above 28.5¢/kWh | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 28,102 | Feb 28, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Rhode Island’s average residential electricity price for 2026 be above 29.0¢/kWh? · Above 29.0¢/kWh | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 24,598 | Feb 28, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Rhode Island’s average residential electricity price for 2026 be above 30.0¢/kWh? · Above 30.0¢/kWh | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 17,653 | Feb 28, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Rhode Island’s average residential electricity price for 2026 be above 31.0¢/kWh? · Above 31.0¢/kWh | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 12,321 | Feb 28, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Rhode Island’s average residential electricity price for 2026 be above 30.5¢/kWh? · Above 30.5¢/kWh | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 10,420 | Feb 28, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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