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Rhode Island quahog landings on Kalshi
If RIDEM reports Rhode Island’s commercial quahog landings for 2026 is above 340,000 meat pounds, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rhode Island’s commercial quahog landings for 2026 be above 340,000 meat pounds? · Above 340,000 meat pounds | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 37,397 | Jun 30, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Rhode Island’s commercial quahog landings for 2026 be above 310,000 meat pounds? · Above 310,000 meat pounds | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 27,327 | Jun 30, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Rhode Island’s commercial quahog landings for 2026 be above 280,000 meat pounds? · Above 280,000 meat pounds | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 16,418 | Jun 30, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Rhode Island’s commercial quahog landings for 2026 be above 250,000 meat pounds? · Above 250,000 meat pounds | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 15,942 | Jun 30, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Rhode Island’s commercial quahog landings for 2026 be above 220,000 meat pounds? · Above 220,000 meat pounds | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 3,654 | Jun 30, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Rhode Island’s commercial quahog landings for 2026 be above 190,000 meat pounds? · Above 190,000 meat pounds | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 1,937 | Jun 30, 13:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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