What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.48.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Republican House seats won (media calls) on Kalshi

If the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 162 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox News, Decision Desk HQ, NBC News, CBS News, ABC News, CNN, the Associated Press, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

1% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 190 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 190	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	36,589	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 186 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 186	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	21,910	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 218 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 218	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	19,956	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 182 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 182	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	18,547	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 194 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 194	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	18,173	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 198 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 198	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	16,342	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 214 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 214	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	13,627	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 206 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 206	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	12,726	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 202 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 202	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	9,514	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 210 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 210	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	9,351	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 222 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 222	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	8,138	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 234 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 234	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	7,166	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 226 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 226	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	5,711	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 230 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 230	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	3,783	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 174 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 174	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	17%	3,453	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 178 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 178	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	2,887	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 170 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 170	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	3%	884	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 166 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 166	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	3%	412	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 158 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 158	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	41	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 162 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 162	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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