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How many Republican Governors after the midterms? on Kalshi

If the number of governorships controlled by Republicans is at least 28 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat>.

Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)0.1¢$3.471.1%
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 22 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract? · At least 222¢2%0.2¢—5%18,351Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 21 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract? · At least 213¢3%0.2¢—6%10,371Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 24 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract? · At least 240¢0%0.0¢—1%5,226Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 26 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract? · At least 261¢1%0.1¢—2%4,182Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 23 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract? · At least 230¢0%0.0¢—1%2,046Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 25 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract? · At least 251¢1%0.1¢—2%1,376Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 27 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract? · At least 271¢1%0.1¢—2%563Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 28 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract? · At least 280¢0%0.0¢—1%458Feb 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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