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r.e.m. beauty TikTok Shop revenue on Kalshi
If the Carbon Arc r.e.m. beauty TikTok Shop growth (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 155 index points, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Carbon Arc - r.e.m. beauty TikTok Shop.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 23:27 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will r.e.m. beauty TikTok Shop growth for November 2026 be above 155 index points? · Above 155 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will r.e.m. beauty TikTok Shop growth for November 2026 be above 150 index points? · Above 150 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will r.e.m. beauty TikTok Shop growth for November 2026 be above 145 index points? · Above 145 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will r.e.m. beauty TikTok Shop growth for November 2026 be above 140 index points? · Above 140 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will r.e.m. beauty TikTok Shop growth for November 2026 be above 135 index points? · Above 135 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will r.e.m. beauty TikTok Shop growth for November 2026 be above 130 index points? · Above 130 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will r.e.m. beauty TikTok Shop growth for November 2026 be above 125 index points? · Above 125 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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