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Chicago Football Relocation on Kalshi
If the Chicago Pro Football Team stay and do not relocate/announce a relocation by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League, the team.
Market says (typical open contract)
15%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
29% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $2.98 | 15.9% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to Indiana by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season? · Indiana | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 533,559 | Sep 07, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to a new location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season? · A new location in Illinois | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 298,870 | Sep 07, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the Chicago Pro Football Team not relocate/announce a relocation by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season? · Do not relocate or announce a relocation | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 191,397 | Sep 07, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to Iowa by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season? · Iowa | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 32,446 | Sep 07, 03:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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