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Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator on Kalshi
If Virginia is the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Iowa Secretary of State, Alaska Division of Elections, South Carolina State Election Commission, Georgia Secretary of State, Michigan Secretary of State, Louisiana Secretary of State, Texas Secretary of State, Mississippi Secretary of State, Federal Election Commission, the Florida Division of Elections, Kansas Secretary of State, Ohio Secretary of State, North Carolina State Board of Elections, New Hampshire Secretary of State, Montana Secretary of State, Minnesota Secretary of State, Virginia Department of Elections, Nebraska Secretary of State.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kansas be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Kansas | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 86,447 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Mississippi be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Mississippi | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 53,373 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will North Carolina be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · North Carolina | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 50,437 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Louisiana be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Louisiana | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 40,685 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will South Carolina be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · South Carolina | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 36,219 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Texas be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Texas | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 29,985 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Alaska be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Alaska | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 27,638 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Ohio be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Ohio | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 24,203 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Georgia be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Georgia | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 20,568 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Michigan be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Michigan | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 16,315 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Montana be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Montana | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 14,403 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Iowa be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Iowa | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,977 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Florida be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Florida | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,301 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Minnesota be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Minnesota | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,559 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will New Hampshire be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · New Hampshire | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,969 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Virginia be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Virginia | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,831 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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