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Reddit KPI on Kalshi
If Reddit Inc. reports Above 130000000 daily active uniques in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
34%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
69% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 34¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.31 | 35.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reddit Inc. report Above 138 million daily active uniques in 2026? · Above 138 million | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 3,261 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Reddit Inc. report Above 136 million daily active uniques in 2026? · Above 136 million | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 3,238 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Reddit Inc. report Above 154 million daily active uniques in 2026? · Above 154 million | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,503 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Reddit Inc. report Above 142 million daily active uniques in 2026? · Above 142 million | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 1,964 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Reddit Inc. report Above 144 million daily active uniques in 2026? · Above 144 million | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 1,710 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Reddit Inc. report Above 140 million daily active uniques in 2026? · Above 140 million | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 1,528 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Reddit Inc. report Above 146 million daily active uniques in 2026? · Above 146 million | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 99 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Reddit Inc. report Above 152 million daily active uniques in 2026? · Above 152 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 54 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Reddit Inc. report Above 150 million daily active uniques in 2026? · Above 150 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 22 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Reddit Inc. report Above 148 million daily active uniques in 2026? · Above 148 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 21 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Reddit Inc. report Above 130 million daily active uniques in fiscal 2026? · Above 130 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Reddit Inc. report Above 132 million daily active uniques in fiscal 2026? · Above 132 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Reddit Inc. report Above 134 million daily active uniques in fiscal 2026? · Above 134 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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