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Rare Beauty TikTok Shop revenue on Kalshi
If the Carbon Arc Rare Beauty TikTok Shop growth (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 700 index points, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Carbon Arc - Rare Beauty TikTok Shop.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 23:27 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rare Beauty TikTok Shop growth for November 2026 be above 700 index points? · Above 700 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Rare Beauty TikTok Shop growth for November 2026 be above 675 index points? · Above 675 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Rare Beauty TikTok Shop growth for November 2026 be above 650 index points? · Above 650 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Rare Beauty TikTok Shop growth for November 2026 be above 625 index points? · Above 625 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Rare Beauty TikTok Shop growth for November 2026 be above 600 index points? · Above 600 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Rare Beauty TikTok Shop growth for November 2026 be above 575 index points? · Above 575 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Rare Beauty TikTok Shop growth for November 2026 be above 550 index points? · Above 550 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.