What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.48.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Raman vs. Talarico margin on Kalshi

If James Talarico's margin in the Texas U.S. Senate election minus Nithya Raman's margin in the Los Angeles mayoral election is between 5 and 10 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Texas Secretary of State, Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

1% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will James Talarico's Texas Senate margin minus Nithya Raman's LA mayoral margin be between 0.01 and 5 points? · Talarico by 0-5	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	4%	14,425	Jan 08, 14:59 UTC
Will James Talarico's Texas Senate margin minus Nithya Raman's LA mayoral margin be between 5 and 10 points? · Talarico by 5-10	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	12,799	Jan 08, 14:59 UTC
Will James Talarico's Texas Senate margin minus Nithya Raman's LA mayoral margin be at least 15 points? · Talarico by 15+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	12,000	Jan 08, 14:59 UTC
Will Nithya Raman's LA mayoral margin minus James Talarico's Texas Senate margin be between 0 and 5 points? · Raman by 0-5	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	10,952	Jan 08, 14:59 UTC
Will James Talarico's Texas Senate margin minus Nithya Raman's LA mayoral margin be between 10 and 15 points? · Talarico by 10-15	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	10,450	Jan 08, 14:59 UTC
Will Nithya Raman's LA mayoral margin minus James Talarico's Texas Senate margin be between 5 and 10 points? · Raman by 5-10	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	9,555	Jan 08, 14:59 UTC
Will Nithya Raman's LA mayoral margin minus James Talarico's Texas Senate margin be between 10 and 15 points? · Raman by 10-15	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	7,935	Jan 08, 14:59 UTC
Will Nithya Raman's LA mayoral margin minus James Talarico's Texas Senate margin be at least 15 points? · Raman by 15+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	7,775	Jan 08, 14:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.