What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 28¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.54.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 29% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 28%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather

Where will it rain this weekend? on Kalshi

If the total precipitation at CLIDJT in West Palm Beach on any day within November 14, 2026 through November 15, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Weather Company.

Market says (typical open contract)

28%

Median YES price across 35 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

55% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
28¢ (now)	1.4¢	$2.52	29.4%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will it rain in Oklahoma City between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Oklahoma City	54¢	54%	1.7¢	—	92%	1,738	Nov 16, 06:00 UTC
Will it rain in Los Angeles between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Los Angeles	49¢	49%	1.7¢	—	98%	1,227	Nov 16, 08:00 UTC
Will it rain in Springfield between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Springfield	45¢	45%	1.7¢	—	90%	1,007	Nov 16, 06:00 UTC
Will it rain in Dallas between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Dallas	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	855	Nov 16, 06:00 UTC
Will it rain in San Antonio between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · San Antonio	88¢	88%	0.8¢	—	25%	658	Nov 16, 06:00 UTC
Will it rain in Newark between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Newark	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	59%	592	Nov 16, 05:00 UTC
Will it rain in Boston between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Boston	60¢	60%	1.7¢	—	81%	527	Nov 16, 05:00 UTC
Will it rain in New York City between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · New York City	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	67%	489	Nov 16, 05:00 UTC
Will it rain in Houston between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Houston	65¢	65%	1.6¢	—	70%	451	Nov 16, 06:00 UTC
Will it rain in Philadelphia between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Philadelphia	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	47%	414	Nov 16, 05:00 UTC
Will it rain in Phoenix between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Phoenix	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	64%	383	Nov 16, 07:00 UTC
Will it rain in San Francisco between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · San Francisco	88¢	88%	0.7¢	—	24%	355	Nov 16, 08:00 UTC
Will it rain in Providence between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Providence	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	96%	348	Nov 16, 05:00 UTC
Will it rain in Trenton between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Trenton	28¢	28%	1.4¢	—	55%	308	Nov 16, 05:00 UTC
Will it rain in Miami between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Miami	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	305	Nov 16, 05:00 UTC
Will it rain in Las Vegas between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Las Vegas	26¢	26%	1.4¢	—	53%	298	Nov 16, 08:00 UTC
Will it rain in Albuquerque between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Albuquerque	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	64%	238	Nov 16, 07:00 UTC
Will it rain in New Orleans between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · New Orleans	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	47%	223	Nov 16, 06:00 UTC
Will it rain in Austin between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Austin	68¢	68%	1.5¢	—	64%	204	Nov 16, 06:00 UTC
Will it rain in Pittsburgh between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Pittsburgh	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	96%	180	Nov 16, 05:00 UTC
Will it rain in Atlanta between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Atlanta	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	160	Nov 16, 05:00 UTC
Will it rain in Washington DC between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Washington DC	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	47%	123	Nov 16, 05:00 UTC
Will it rain in Tampa between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Tampa	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	122	Nov 16, 05:00 UTC
Will it rain in Chicago between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Chicago	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	36%	107	Nov 16, 06:00 UTC
Will it rain in West Palm Beach between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · West Palm Beach	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	98	Nov 16, 05:00 UTC
Will it rain in Lexington between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Lexington	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	94	Nov 16, 05:00 UTC
Will it rain in College Station between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · College Station	66¢	66%	1.6¢	—	69%	91	Nov 16, 06:00 UTC
Will it rain in Denver between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Denver	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	91	Nov 16, 07:00 UTC
Will it rain in Indianapolis between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Indianapolis	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	89	Nov 16, 05:00 UTC
Will it rain in Columbus between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Columbus	19¢	19%	1.1¢	—	38%	63	Nov 16, 05:00 UTC
Will it rain in Milwaukee between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Milwaukee	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	18	Nov 16, 06:00 UTC
Will it rain in Seattle between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Seattle	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	3%	16	Nov 16, 08:00 UTC
Will it rain in Detroit between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Detroit	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	10	Nov 16, 05:00 UTC
Will it rain in Minneapolis between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Minneapolis	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	9	Nov 16, 06:00 UTC
Will it rain in St. Louis between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · St. Louis	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	36%	0	Nov 16, 06:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.