What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 53¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.65.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 55% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 53%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Ferrari KPI on Kalshi

If Ferrari N.V. reports Above 14200 total car shipments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fiscal.ai.

Market says (typical open contract)

53%

Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

94% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
53¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.65	54.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13900 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 13900	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	7,796	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13500 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 13500	68¢	68%	1.5¢	—	63%	6,157	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13800 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 13800	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	5,309	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13000 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 13000	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	2,096	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13400 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 13400	78¢	78%	1.2¢	—	44%	1,746	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13700 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 13700	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	51%	1,626	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13600 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 13600	53¢	53%	1.7¢	—	94%	1,516	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13100 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 13100	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	4%	1,302	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 14100 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 14100	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	955	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13200 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 13200	88¢	88%	0.7¢	—	24%	418	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13300 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 13300	86¢	86%	0.9¢	—	29%	152	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 14000 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 14000	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	83	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 14200 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 14200	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	6	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.