Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Punjab Legislative Assembly election winner on Kalshi
If Shiromani Akali Dal wins the 2027 Punjab Legislative Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Election Commission of India.
Market says (typical open contract)
35%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
70% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 35¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.28 | 36.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Indian National Congress win the 2027 Punjab Legislative Assembly election? · Indian National Congress | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 812 | Feb 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bharatiya Janata Party win the 2027 Punjab Legislative Assembly election? · Bharatiya Janata Party | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 358 | Feb 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Aam Aadmi Party win the 2027 Punjab Legislative Assembly election? · Aam Aadmi Party | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 278 | Feb 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Shiromani Akali Dal win the 2027 Punjab Legislative Assembly election? · Shiromani Akali Dal | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 28 | Feb 20, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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