What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 2¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.41.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 3% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 2%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Science and Technology

Prime energy source on Kalshi

If Modern biofuels is the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the Statistical Review of World Energy, Our World in Data.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

5% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
3¢ (now)	0.2¢	$3.40	3.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030? · Oil	62¢	62%	1.7¢	—	77%	52,901	Dec 30, 15:00 UTC
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030? · Solar	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	29,417	Dec 30, 15:00 UTC
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030? · Nuclear	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	20,597	Dec 30, 15:00 UTC
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030? · Wind	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	9,695	Dec 30, 15:00 UTC
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030? · Hydropower	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	7,847	Dec 30, 15:00 UTC
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030? · Other renewables	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	7,546	Dec 30, 15:00 UTC
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030? · Gas	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	7,384	Dec 30, 15:00 UTC
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030? · Modern biofuels	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	7,351	Dec 30, 15:00 UTC
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030? · Traditional biomass	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	5,401	Dec 30, 15:00 UTC
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030? · Coal	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	27%	5,041	Dec 30, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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