What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 96¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.12.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 97% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 96%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

First listed Democrat to announce a 2028 presidential run on Kalshi

If at least one of the listed Democrats announced a run for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Fox News, The Information, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Semafor, MSNBC, the Associated Press, Reuters, Politico, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

96%

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

7% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%
96¢ (now)	0.3¢	$0.14	96.3%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least one of the listed Democrats announced a run for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least one of the listed Democrats announced a run for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination before Sep 1, 2027? · Before Sep 1, 2027	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	Sep 01, 03:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least one of the listed Democrats announced a run for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination before Mar 1, 2027? · Before Mar 1, 2027	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	Mar 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least one of the listed Democrats announced a run for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination before Jun 1, 2027? · Before Jun 1, 2027	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	Jun 01, 03:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least one of the listed Democrats announced a run for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	80¢	80%	1.1¢	—	40%	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least one of the listed Democrats announced a run for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	8%	Feb 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least one of the listed Democrats announced a run for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least one of the listed Democrats announced a run for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	27¢	27%	1.4¢	—	54%	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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