Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Pres person on Kalshi
If Michelle Obama is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Office of the Presidency.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 51 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Jon Ossoff | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 6,517,223 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Marco Rubio | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 6,431,029 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · J.D. Vance | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 5,327,576 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Gavin Newsom | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 5,273,591 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 5,007,721 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Donald J. Trump | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 4,201,807 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Ron DeSantis | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 3,708,920 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Kamala Harris | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,564,342 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · J.B. Pritzker | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 3,454,564 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · James Talarico | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,339,852 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Tucker Carlson | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,294,751 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Donald J. Trump Jr. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,094,441 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Mark Kelly | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 3,016,837 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Andy Beshear | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,953,101 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Wes Moore | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 2,795,429 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Pete Buttigieg | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,780,631 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Tulsi Gabbard | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,618,218 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Stephen A. Smith | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 2,571,421 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Josh Shapiro | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 2,563,239 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Gretchen Whitmer | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,550,250 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Rahm Emanuel | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,228,107 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Vivek Ramaswamy | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 2,112,256 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Thomas Massie | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,682,638 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Glenn Youngkin | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,639,732 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Jamie Dimon | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,555,362 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Nikki Haley | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,080,007 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Hunter Biden | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 1,002,275 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Abdul El-Sayed | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 953,575 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Ro Khanna | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 930,599 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Brian Kemp | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 796,775 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Tim Walz | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 776,751 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · John McEntee | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 770,345 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Raphael Warnock | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 714,435 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Greg Abbott | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 433,386 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Ted Cruz | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 383,570 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Michelle Obama | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 349,869 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Roy Cooper | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 276,822 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Joe Kent | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 260,336 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Ivanka Trump | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 203,061 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next presidential election? · Doug Burgum | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 174,671 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 51 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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