Markets › Kalshi › Elections
2028 Presidential election: exact outcome on Kalshi
If Marco Rubio defeats Pete Buttigieg in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 32 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee? · Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 22,923 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will JD Vance defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee? · JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 21,296 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Jon Ossoff as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee? · Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 19,971 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee? · AOC defeats JD Vance | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 16,089 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee? · Marco Rubio defeats Gavin Newsom | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 15,982 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Gavin Newsom defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee? · Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 15,315 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will JD Vance defeat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the 2028 presidential election, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee? · JD Vance defeats AOC | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 10,942 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Jon Ossoff as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee? · Jon Ossoff defeats Marco Rubio | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 9,823 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio defeat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the 2028 presidential election, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee? · Marco Rubio defeats AOC | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 7,512 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will JD Vance defeat Kamala Harris in the 2028 presidential election, with Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee? · JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 5,865 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Kamala Harris defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee? · Kamala Harris defeats JD Vance | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 5,112 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Andy Beshear defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Andy Beshear as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee? · Andy Beshear defeats Marco Rubio | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 4,721 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Andy Beshear defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Andy Beshear as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee? · Andy Beshear defeats JD Vance | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,792 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio defeat Jon Ossoff in the 2028 presidential election, with Jon Ossoff as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee? · Marco Rubio defeats Jon Ossoff | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 3,477 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with James Talarico as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee? · James Talarico defeats JD Vance | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,107 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Pete Buttigieg defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Pete Buttigieg as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee? · Pete Buttigieg defeats JD Vance | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,929 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee? · AOC defeats Marco Rubio | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,188 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio defeat Kamala Harris in the 2028 presidential election, with Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee? · Marco Rubio defeats Kamala Harris | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,958 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will JD Vance defeat James Talarico in the 2028 presidential election, with James Talarico as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee? · JD Vance defeats James Talarico | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,534 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Pete Buttigieg defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Pete Buttigieg as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee? · Pete Buttigieg defeats Marco Rubio | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,485 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Shapiro defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Josh Shapiro as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee? · Josh Shapiro defeats JD Vance | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,102 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio defeat Pete Buttigieg in the 2028 presidential election, with Pete Buttigieg as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee? · Marco Rubio defeats Pete Buttigieg | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 594 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will JD Vance defeat Jon Ossoff in the 2028 presidential election, with Jon Ossoff as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee? · JD Vance defeats Jon Ossoff | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 588 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with James Talarico as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee? · James Talarico defeats Marco Rubio | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 494 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio defeat Andy Beshear in the 2028 presidential election, with Andy Beshear as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee? · Marco Rubio defeats Andy Beshear | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 494 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will JD Vance defeat Josh Shapiro in the 2028 presidential election, with Josh Shapiro as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee? · JD Vance defeats Josh Shapiro | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 485 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Kamala Harris defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee? · Kamala Harris defeats Marco Rubio | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 467 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio defeat James Talarico in the 2028 presidential election, with James Talarico as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee? · Marco Rubio defeats James Talarico | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 454 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will JD Vance defeat Pete Buttigieg in the 2028 presidential election, with Pete Buttigieg as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee? · JD Vance defeats Pete Buttigieg | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 304 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio defeat Josh Shapiro in the 2028 presidential election, with Josh Shapiro as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee? · Marco Rubio defeats Josh Shapiro | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 200 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Shapiro defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Josh Shapiro as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee? · Josh Shapiro defeats Marco Rubio | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 155 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
| Will JD Vance defeat Andy Beshear in the 2028 presidential election, with Andy Beshear as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee? · JD Vance defeats Andy Beshear | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 96 | Jan 20, 10:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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