Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Republican Primary winner on Kalshi
If Mike Johnson wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Republican Party, Democratic Party.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 52 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Marco Rubio | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 6,714,163 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · J.D. Vance | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 5,650,959 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tucker Carlson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Tucker Carlson | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 5,474,378 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Donald J. Trump | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 5,012,464 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ron DeSantis be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Ron DeSantis | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 4,812,061 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Thomas Massie be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Thomas Massie | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 4,505,476 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Marjorie Taylor Greene | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,740,042 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ted Cruz be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Ted Cruz | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,617,605 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Donald J. Trump Jr. | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,324,372 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nikki Haley be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Nikki Haley | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,165,896 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brian Kemp be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Brian Kemp | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,748,687 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ivanka Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Ivanka Trump | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,525,023 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pete Hegseth be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Pete Hegseth | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,311,212 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Byron Donalds be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Byron Donalds | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,074,589 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Elon Musk | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 1,904,437 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Glenn Youngkin be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Glenn Youngkin | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,838,773 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Hawley be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Josh Hawley | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,812,708 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Vivek Ramaswamy | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 1,793,486 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Eric Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Eric Trump | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 1,785,853 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Tulsi Gabbard | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,729,726 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Greg Abbott be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Greg Abbott | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,701,119 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rand Paul be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Rand Paul | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,638,661 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John McEntee be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · John McEntee | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,623,895 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,561,810 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,554,563 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mike Pence be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Mike Pence | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,545,132 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nicki Minaj be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Nicki Minaj | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 1,491,279 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Katie Britt be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Katie Britt | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,378,185 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Erika Kirk be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Erika Kirk | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 1,227,961 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Matt Gaetz be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Matt Gaetz | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 1,147,378 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Steve Bannon be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Steve Bannon | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 1,049,157 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tom Cotton be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Tom Cotton | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 970,425 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Elise Stefanik be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Elise Stefanik | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 810,912 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Spencer Pratt be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Spencer Pratt | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 800,941 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joe Kent be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Joe Kent | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 763,613 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kristi Noem be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Kristi Noem | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 754,672 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John Thune be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · John Thune | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 503,565 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John Kennedy be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · John Kennedy | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 436,812 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chris Christie be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Chris Christie | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 405,200 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Candace Owens be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? · Candace Owens | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 342,344 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 52 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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