Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Democratic Primary winner on Kalshi
If Chris Pappas wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Republican Party, Democratic Party.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 60 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
0% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Gavin Newsom | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 12,385,712 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Jon Ossoff | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 11,917,722 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 10,777,218 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · James Talarico | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 10,486,951 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Zohran Mamdani | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 10,277,101 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Kamala Harris | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 9,355,810 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Mark Kelly | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 9,024,902 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hunter Biden be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Hunter Biden | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 8,583,060 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party? · Abdul El-Sayed | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 8,129,970 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rahm Emanuel be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Rahm Emanuel | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 8,127,814 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michelle Obama be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Michelle Obama | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 7,836,474 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Pete Buttigieg | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 7,587,531 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ro Khanna be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Ro Khanna | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 7,518,789 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Andy Beshear be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Andy Beshear | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 7,384,751 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will J.B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · J.B. Pritzker | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 7,311,295 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Stephen A. Smith be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Stephen A. Smith | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 7,237,781 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Josh Shapiro | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 6,883,245 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Raphael Warnock be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Raphael Warnock | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 6,656,636 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Barack Obama be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Barack Obama | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 6,549,840 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mark Cuban be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Mark Cuban | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,240,271 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bernie Sanders be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Bernie Sanders | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,182,561 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Andrew Yang be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party? · Andrew Yang | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 5,896,017 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wes Moore be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Wes Moore | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 5,889,693 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Gretchen Whitmer | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,579,043 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jon Stewart be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Jon Stewart | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 5,547,825 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John Fetterman be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · John Fetterman | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 5,208,454 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cory Booker be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Cory Booker | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,567,878 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Roy Cooper be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Roy Cooper | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,527,079 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ruben Gallego be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Ruben Gallego | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,484,311 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chris Murphy be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Chris Murphy | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 4,353,885 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Graham Platner be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party? · Graham Platner | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 4,328,812 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Elissa Slotkin be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Elissa Slotkin | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,288,065 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Liz Cheney be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Liz Cheney | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 4,129,312 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Amy Klobuchar be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party? · Amy Klobuchar | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 3,998,023 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hilary Clinton be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Hillary Clinton | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 3,966,482 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jamie Dimon be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Jamie Dimon | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 3,622,140 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tim Walz be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Tim Walz | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 3,575,428 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will LeBron James be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · LeBron James | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 3,265,447 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dwayne Johnson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party? · Dwayne Johnson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 3,182,071 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jared Polis be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · Jared Polis | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 2,954,292 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 60 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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