Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Nigerian presidential election on Kalshi
If the winner of the next Nigerian presidential election is Bola Tinubu, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the official electoral commission, constitutional court, or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction.
Market says (typical open contract)
24%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
49% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.66 | 25.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will win the next Nigerian presidential election? · Bola Tinubu | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 8,293 | Feb 28, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next Nigerian presidential election? · Peter Obi | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 5,081 | Feb 28, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next Nigerian presidential election? · Atiku Abubakar | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,230 | Feb 28, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next Nigerian presidential election? · Kashim Shettima | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 21 | Feb 28, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.