What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 5¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.33.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 5% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 5%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

What countries will Pope Leo visit before 2027? on Kalshi

If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of the United States of America before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: official representatives or offices of <person>, ABC, Fox News, official social media accounts of <person> or their official representatives, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Guardian, Bloomberg News, The Information, CNBC, CBS, NBC, BBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, The New York Times, Politico, MSNBC, the Associated Press, Reuters, local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in <area>, official government sources of <area>.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

10% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
5¢ (now)	0.3¢	$3.33	5.3%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Pope Leo XIV visit United States before Jan 1, 2027? · USA	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	90,451	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Pope Leo XIV visit Mexico before Jan 1, 2027? · Mexico	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	27,488	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Pope Leo XIV visit Peru before Jan 1, 2027? · Peru	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	22,755	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Pope Leo XIV visit Ukraine before Jan 1, 2027? · Ukraine	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	9,161	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Pope Leo XIV visit Brazil before Jan 1, 2027? · Brazil	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	5,076	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Pope Leo XIV visit Israel before Jan 1, 2027? · Israel	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	4,648	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Pope Leo XIV visit Portugal before Jan 1, 2027? · Portugal	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	4,080	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Pope Leo XIV visit South Sudan before Jan 1, 2027? · South Sudan	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	3,123	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Pope Leo XIV visit Jordan before Jan 1, 2027? · Jordan	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	407	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Pope Leo XIV visit Philippines before Jan 1, 2027? · Philippines	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	210	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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