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Phillip Morris KPI on Kalshi
If Philip Morris International Inc reports Above 12600000000 zyn u.s. shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 11.6 billion zyn u.s. shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026? · Above 11.6 billion | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 1,742 | May 06, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 11.8 billion zyn u.s. shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026? · Above 11.8 billion | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 1,168 | May 06, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 12 billion zyn u.s. shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026? · Above 12 billion | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 452 | May 06, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 11.4 billion zyn u.s. shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026? · Above 11.4 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 273 | May 06, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 10.6 billion zyn u.s. shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026? · Above 10.6 billion | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 210 | May 06, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 10.8 billion zyn u.s. shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026? · Above 10.8 billion | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 125 | May 06, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 11.2 billion zyn u.s. shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026? · Above 11.2 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 84 | May 06, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 11 billion zyn u.s. shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026? · Above 11 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 72 | May 06, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 12.6 billion zyn u.s. shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026? · Above 12.6 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | May 06, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 12.4 billion zyn u.s. shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026? · Above 12.4 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | May 06, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 12.2 billion zyn u.s. shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026? · Above 12.2 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | May 06, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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