Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Philadelphia Democratic mayoral nominee on Kalshi
If Shania Bennett wins the 2027 Philadelphia Democratic mayoral primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Philadelphia City Commissioners.
Market says (typical open contract)
7%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
14% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will win the 2027 Philadelphia Democratic mayoral primary? · Shania Bennett | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | May 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Who will win the 2027 Philadelphia Democratic mayoral primary? · Larry Krasner | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | May 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Who will win the 2027 Philadelphia Democratic mayoral primary? · Kendra Brooks | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | May 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Who will win the 2027 Philadelphia Democratic mayoral primary? · Cherelle Parker | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | May 17, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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