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PGA Returning Players on Kalshi
If Tyrrell Hatton rejoins, applies to rejoin, or announces that he will rejoin the PGA Tour before Jan 21, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: New York Times, CBS Sports, ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jon Rahm rejoin, apply to rejoin, or announce that he will rejoin the PGA Tour before Jan 21, 2027? · Jon Rahm | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 719 | Jan 21, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Bryson DeChambeau rejoin, apply to rejoin, or announce that he will rejoin the PGA Tour before Jan 21, 2027? · Bryson DeChambeau | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 38 | Jan 21, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Anthony Kim rejoin, apply to rejoin, or announce that he will rejoin the PGA Tour before Jan 21, 2027? · Anthony Kim | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 5 | Jan 21, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Tyrrell Hatton rejoin, apply to rejoin, or announce that he will rejoin the PGA Tour before Jan 21, 2027? · Tyrrell Hatton | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 21, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Thomas Detry rejoin, apply to rejoin, or announce that he will rejoin the PGA Tour before Jan 21, 2027? · Thomas Detry | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 21, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Sergio Garcia rejoin, apply to rejoin, or announce that he will rejoin the PGA Tour before Jan 21, 2027? · Sergio Garcia | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Jan 21, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Phil Mickelson rejoin, apply to rejoin, or announce that he will rejoin the PGA Tour before Jan 21, 2027? · Phil Mickelson | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Jan 21, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Joaquin Niemann rejoin, apply to rejoin, or announce that he will rejoin the PGA Tour before Jan 21, 2027? · Joaquin Niemann | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Jan 21, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Dustin Johnson rejoin, apply to rejoin, or announce that he will rejoin the PGA Tour before Jan 21, 2027? · Dustin Johnson | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Jan 21, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Dean Burmester rejoin, apply to rejoin, or announce that he will rejoin the PGA Tour before Jan 21, 2027? · Dean Burmester | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 21, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Cameron Smith rejoin, apply to rejoin, or announce that he will rejoin the PGA Tour before Jan 21, 2027? · Cameron Smith | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 21, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Byeong Hun An rejoin, apply to rejoin, or announce that he will rejoin the PGA Tour before Jan 21, 2027? · Byeong Hun An | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 21, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Abraham Ancer rejoin, apply to rejoin, or announce that he will rejoin the PGA Tour before Jan 21, 2027? · Abraham Ancer | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 21, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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