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WHO WILL PERFORM Miles Morales on Kalshi
If Tyler James Williams performs/ is announced as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: San Francisco Unified School District.
Market says (typical open contract)
10%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
20% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.15 | 10.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Caleb McLaughlin perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales? · Caleb McLaughlin | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 4,005 | Dec 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dallas Dupree Young perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales? · Dallas Dupree Young | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 1,028 | Dec 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Miles Brown perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales? · Miles Brown | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 839 | Dec 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alex R. Hibbert perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales? · Alex R. Hibbert | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 360 | Dec 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Justice Smith perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales? · Justice Smith | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 293 | Dec 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tyler James Williams perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales? · Tyler James Williams | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 152 | Dec 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Myles Truitt perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales? · Myles Truitt | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 14 | Dec 30, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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