What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 76¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.86.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 77% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 76%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Which peptides will FDA propose allowing for pharmacy compounding? on Kalshi

If the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announces publication of a proposed rule that would add TB-500 (free base) or TB-500 acetate to the 503A Bulks List before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: social media of the White House, ABC, the Federal Register, The Information, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, CBS, social media of the White House and the President of the United States, NBC, the White House, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Fox News, The New York Times, government agency, Semafor, Politico, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Reuters, the President of the United States.

Market says (typical open contract)

76%

Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

49% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
76¢ (now)	1.3¢	$0.84	77.3%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announce publication of a proposed rule that would add KPV (free base) or KPV acetate to the 503A Bulks List before Oct 1, 2027? · KPV	82¢	82%	1.1¢	—	37%	1,672	Oct 01, 03:59 UTC
Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announce publication of a proposed rule that would add BPC-157 (free base) or BPC-157 acetate to the 503A Bulks List before Oct 1, 2027? · BPC-157	80¢	80%	1.1¢	—	40%	974	Oct 01, 03:59 UTC
Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announce publication of a proposed rule that would add TB-500 (free base) or TB-500 acetate to the 503A Bulks List before Oct 1, 2027? · TB-500	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	49%	227	Oct 01, 03:59 UTC
Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announce publication of a proposed rule that would add MOTS-c (free base) or MOTS-c acetate to the 503A Bulks List before Oct 1, 2027? · MOTS-c	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	49%	198	Oct 01, 03:59 UTC
Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announce publication of a proposed rule that would add Semax (free base) or Semax acetate to the 503A Bulks List before Oct 1, 2027? · Semax	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	49%	76	Oct 01, 03:59 UTC
Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announce publication of a proposed rule that would add Epitalon (free base) or Epitalon acetate to the 503A Bulks List before Oct 1, 2027? · Epitalon	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	49%	76	Oct 01, 03:59 UTC
Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announce publication of a proposed rule that would add emideltide (free base) or emideltide acetate to the 503A Bulks List before Oct 1, 2027? · Emideltide	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	51%	17	Oct 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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