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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. KPI on Kalshi
If Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras reports above 4100 total oil and gas production in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
40%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
81% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 41¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.07 | 42.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras report above 3800 mboed total oil and gas production in Q1 2027? · Above 3800 mboed | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 350 | Aug 28, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras report above 3850 mboed total oil and gas production in Q1 2027? · Above 3850 mboed | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 246 | Aug 28, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras report above 3550 mboed total oil and gas production in Q1 2027? · Above 3550 mboed | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 209 | Aug 28, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras report above 4100 mboed total oil and gas production in Q1 2027? · Above 4100 mboed | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 196 | Aug 28, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras report above 3500 mboed total oil and gas production in Q1 2027? · Above 3500 mboed | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 156 | Aug 28, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras report above 3750 mboed total oil and gas production in Q1 2027? · Above 3750 mboed | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 146 | Aug 28, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras report above 3700 mboed total oil and gas production in Q1 2027? · Above 3700 mboed | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 146 | Aug 28, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras report above 3650 mboed total oil and gas production in Q1 2027? · Above 3650 mboed | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 146 | Aug 28, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras report above 3600 mboed total oil and gas production in Q1 2027? · Above 3600 mboed | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 146 | Aug 28, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras report above 3450 mboed total oil and gas production in Q1 2027? · Above 3450 mboed | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 132 | Aug 28, 04:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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