What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 40¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.08.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 42% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 40%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Pennsylvania Senate 2028: who will run? on Kalshi

If Susan Wild has announced that they will run for the Class 3 United States Senate seat from Pennsylvania in 2028 after Issuance and before Feb 16, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Fox News, The Information, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Semafor, the Associated Press, Reuters, Politico, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

40%

Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

81% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
41¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.07	42.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Brendan Boyle announce a run for the Class 3 United States Senate seat from Pennsylvania in 2028? · Brendan Boyle	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	2,354	Feb 16, 15:00 UTC
Will Chris Deluzio announce a run for the Class 3 United States Senate seat from Pennsylvania in 2028? · Chris Deluzio	81¢	81%	1.1¢	—	38%	1,316	Feb 16, 15:00 UTC
Will John Fetterman announce a run for the Class 3 United States Senate seat from Pennsylvania in 2028? · John Fetterman	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	71%	610	Feb 16, 15:00 UTC
Will Chris Rabb announce a run for the Class 3 United States Senate seat from Pennsylvania in 2028? · Chris Rabb	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	81%	488	Feb 16, 15:00 UTC
Will Summer Lee announce a run for the Class 3 United States Senate seat from Pennsylvania in 2028? · Summer Lee	64¢	64%	1.6¢	—	71%	200	Feb 16, 15:00 UTC
Will Larry Krasner announce a run for the Class 3 United States Senate seat from Pennsylvania in 2028? · Larry Krasner	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	72%	153	Feb 16, 15:00 UTC
Will Susan Wild announce a run for the Class 3 United States Senate seat from Pennsylvania in 2028? · Susan Wild	21¢	21%	1.2¢	—	42%	29	Feb 16, 15:00 UTC
Will Malcolm Kenyatta announce a run for the Class 3 United States Senate seat from Pennsylvania in 2028? · Malcolm Kenyatta	41¢	41%	1.7¢	—	82%	0	Feb 16, 15:00 UTC
Will Conor Lamb announce a run for the Class 3 United States Senate seat from Pennsylvania in 2028? · Conor Lamb	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	48%	0	Feb 16, 15:00 UTC
Will Chrissy Houlahan announce a run for the Class 3 United States Senate seat from Pennsylvania in 2028? · Chrissy Houlahan	41¢	41%	1.7¢	—	82%	0	Feb 16, 15:00 UTC
Will Bob Casey Jr. announce a run for the Class 3 United States Senate seat from Pennsylvania in 2028? · Bob Casey Jr.	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	0	Feb 16, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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