Markets › Kalshi › Commodities
Palladium Hourly on Kalshi
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for palladium on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM EST is above 1046.99 USD/ounce, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - Palladium.
Market says (typical open contract)
94%
Median YES price across 71 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
13% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 94¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $0.21 | 94.4% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the palladium close price be above 1040.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1040.99 | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 19 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1041.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1041.49 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 17 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1042.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1042.49 | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 14 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1050.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1050.99 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1050.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1050.49 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1049.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1049.99 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1049.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1049.49 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1048.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1048.99 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1048.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1048.49 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1047.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1047.99 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1047.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1047.49 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1046.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1046.99 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1046.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1046.49 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1045.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1045.99 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1045.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1045.49 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1044.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1044.99 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1044.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1044.49 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1043.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1043.99 | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1043.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1043.49 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1042.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1042.99 | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1041.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1041.99 | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1040.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1040.49 | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1039.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1039.99 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1015.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1015.99 | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1016.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1016.49 | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1016.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1016.99 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1017.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1017.49 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1017.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1017.99 | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1018.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1018.49 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1018.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1018.99 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1019.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1019.49 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1039.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1039.49 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1038.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1038.99 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1038.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1038.49 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1037.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1037.99 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1037.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1037.49 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1036.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1036.99 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1036.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1036.49 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1035.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1035.99 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1035.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $1035.49 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 71 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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