Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment
Oscar for Best Picture on Kalshi
If Tender Loving Care has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 41 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the Oscars? · The Odyssey | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 2,500,144 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will You Can See Everything win Best Picture at the Oscars? · You Can See Everything | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 1,577,100 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Digger win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Digger | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,034,657 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dune: Part Three win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Dune: Part Three | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 828,939 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Black Ball win Best Picture at the Oscars? · The Black Ball | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 766,506 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wild Horse Nine win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Wild Horse Nine | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 619,349 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Project Hail Mary win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Project Hail Mary | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 462,262 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Avengers: Doomsday | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 436,168 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Artificial win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Artificial | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 413,704 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Debut win Best Picture at the Oscars? · The Debut | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 389,154 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Obsession win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Obsession | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 381,753 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Social Reckoning win Best Picture at the Oscars? · The Social Reckoning | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 328,475 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Fjord win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Fjord | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 242,468 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josephine win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Josephine | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 217,163 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michael win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Michael | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 203,923 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Behemoth win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Behemoth | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 199,197 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Elsinore win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Elsinore | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 162,463 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth win Best Picture at the Oscars? · The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 157,236 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Paper Tiger win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Paper Tiger | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 114,025 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Disclosure Day win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Disclosure Day | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 97,761 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Tie | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 96,254 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Club Kid win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Club Kid | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 84,409 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Invite win Best Picture at the Oscars? · The Invite | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 59,144 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Minotaur win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Minotaur | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 51,965 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cry to Heaven win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Cry to Heaven | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 42,931 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sense and Sensibility win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Sense and Sensibility | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 34,007 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will All of a Sudden win Best Picture at the Oscars? · All of a Sudden | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 33,230 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Werwulf win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Werwulf | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 31,931 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Primetime win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Primetime | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 27,701 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will 1949 / Fatherland win Best Picture at the Oscars? · 1949 / Fatherland | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 26,747 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Entertainment System Is Down win Best Picture at the Oscars? · The Entertainment System Is Down | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 24,197 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ink win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Ink | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 18,367 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Narnia: The Magician's Nephew win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Narnia: The Magician's Nephew | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 14,669 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hope win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Hope | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 12,929 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Drama win Best Picture at the Oscars? · The Drama | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 11,459 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Being Heumann win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Being Heumann | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 11,051 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Death of Robin Hood win Best Picture at the Oscars? · The Death of Robin Hood | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,276 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will I Love Boosters win Best Picture at the Oscars? · I Love Boosters | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,329 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tender Loving Care win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Tender Loving Care | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,330 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jack of Spades win Best Picture at the Oscars? · Jack of Spades | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,017 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 41 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.