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VISUAL EFFECTS on Kalshi
If The Odyssey has been nominated for Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Market says (typical open contract)
76%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
47% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 77¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $0.80 | 78.2% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Best Visual Effects Oscar nominations? · Project Hail Mary | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 7,394 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Visual Effects Oscar nominations? · Godzilla Minus Zero | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 5,592 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Visual Effects Oscar nominations? · Narnia | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 5,098 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Visual Effects Oscar nominations? · Avengers: Doomsday | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 4,233 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Visual Effects Oscar nominations? · Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 3,187 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Visual Effects Oscar nominations? · The Odyssey | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 2,089 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Visual Effects Oscar nominations? · Dune: Part Three | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1,542 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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