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Oscar nominations for Best Supporting Actress on Kalshi
If Scarlett Johansson has been nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Market says (typical open contract)
16%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
32% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $2.94 | 16.9% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominations? · Inde Navarrette | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 26,699 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominations? · Amanda Seyfried | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 25,901 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominations? · Anne Hathaway | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 20,791 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominations? · Samantha Morton | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 17,693 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominations? · Sandra Hüller | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 8,528 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominations? · Parker Posey | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 7,605 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominations? · Penélope Cruz | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 6,389 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominations? · Mariana di Girolamo | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 6,130 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominations? · Tao Okamoto | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 5,012 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominations? · Zendaya | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 4,528 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominations? · Olivia Colman | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 2,847 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominations? · Kate O'Flynn | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 2,564 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominations? · Gemma Chan | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 974 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominations? · Merritt Wever | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 785 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominations? · Danielle Deadwyler | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 546 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominations? · Margaret Qualley | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 507 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominations? · Betty Gilpin | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 421 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominations? · Isabella Rossellini | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 420 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominations? · Scarlett Johansson | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 2 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominations? · Marion Bailey | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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