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Best Original Screenplay on Kalshi
If Behemoth! has been nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Market says (typical open contract)
15%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
29% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $2.98 | 15.9% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations? · Obsession | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 19,718 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations? · The Invite | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 15,007 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations? · The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 13,021 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations? · Digger | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 11,154 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations? · Fjord | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 6,382 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations? · Wild Horse Nine | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 6,036 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations? · Club Kid | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 5,794 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations? · The Black Ball | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 4,100 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations? · The Odyssey | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,674 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations? · The Debut | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 3,472 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations? · Behemoth! | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 1,914 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations? · The Drama | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 1,869 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations? · Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 1,437 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations? · Fatherland | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,411 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations? · A Place in Hell | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 961 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations? · Josephine | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 848 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations? · Elsinore | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 564 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations? · Forgotten Island | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 367 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.