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Oscar nominations for Best ActRESS on Kalshi
If Laura Linney has been nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 26 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
11% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Inde Navarrette | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 143,871 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Olivia Wilde | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 30,819 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Renate Reinsve | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 28,469 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Julianne Moore | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 20,479 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Emily Blunt | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 17,485 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Sandra Hüller | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 16,253 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Anne Hathaway | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 16,171 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Mikey Madison | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 10,401 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Zendaya | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 10,212 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Michelle Williams | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 9,225 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Ruth Madeley | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 6,779 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Cynthia Erivo | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 6,658 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Virginie Efira | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 6,553 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Rosalind Eleazar | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 6,497 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Penélope Cruz | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 4,535 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Scarlett Johansson | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 3,774 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Daisy Edgar-Jones | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 3,368 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Laura Linney | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1,517 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Kirsten Dunst | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,298 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Shailene Woodley | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,189 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Dakota Johnson | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,074 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Sophie Okonedo | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 984 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Lily Gladstone | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 805 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Joan Collins | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 660 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Michelle Monaghan | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 204 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? · Natalie Portman | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 134 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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